Discussion of A Model of errors and irregularities as a general framework for risk-based audit planning

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1106/thumbnail.jp

Management by Trajectory: Improving Predictability for Airspace Operations

In the present-day National Airspace System, the air traffic management system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, gaps in trajectory data and models, coupled with tactical control actions that are not communicated to automation systems or other stakeholders, lead to trajectory predictions that are less accurate than they could be. This affects traffic flow management performance. Management by Trajectory (MBT) is a NASA concept for air traffic management in which every flight operates in accordance with a 4D trajectory that is negotiated between the airspace user and the FAA to account for the airspace users goals while complying with NAS constraints. The primary benefit of MBT is an improvement in system performance due to increased trajectory predictability and stability, which result from managing traffic in all four dimensions (2D route, vertical, and time), ensuring that changes to the flights trajectory are incorporated into the assigned trajectory, and utilizing improved time or arrival control standards. Importantly, the performance improvements support increasing efficiency without increasing collision risk. This paper provides an overview of MBT and describes fast-time simulation results evaluating the safety, performance, and efficiency effects of MBT

Neural nets versus logistic regression: A comparison of each model\u27s ability to predict commercial bank failures

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1081/thumbnail.jp

Exploratory analysis of the determinants of audit engagement resource allocations

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1051/thumbnail.jp

Auditing practice, research, and education : a productive collaboration

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/aicpa_assoc/1506/thumbnail.jp

Diffuse Gamma-Ray Emission from Starburst Galaxies and M31

We present a search for high energy gamma-ray emission from 9 nearby starburst galaxies and M31 with the EGRET instrument aboard CGRO. Though the diffuse gamma-ray emission from starburst galaxies was suspected to be detectable, we find no emission from NGC 253, M82 nor from the average of all 9 galaxies. The 2 sigma upper limit for the EGRET flux above 100 MeV for the averaged survey observations is 1.8 x 10-8 ph cm-2 s-1. From a model of the expected radio and gamma-ray emission, we find that the magnetic field in the nuclei of these galaxies is > 25 micro Gauss, and the ratio of proton and electron densities is < 400. The EGRET limits indicate that the rate of massive star formation in the survey galaxies is only about an order of magnitude higher than in the Milky Way. The upper limit to the gamma-ray flux above 100 MeV for M31 is 1.6 x 10-8 ph cm-2 s-1. At the distance of M31, the Milky Way flux would be over twice this value, indicating higher gamma-ray emissivities in our Galaxy. Therefore, since the supernova rate of the Milky Way is higher than in M31, our null detection of M31 supports the theory of the supernova origin of cosmic rays in galaxies.Comment: 17 pages, plus 1 Postscript figure, AAS Latex macros v4.0, accepted for publication in ApJ Main Journa

High Depth-of-Discharge Zinc Rechargeability Enabled by a Self-Assembled Polymeric Coating

Zinc has the potential for widespread use as an environmentally friendly and cost-effective anode material pending the resolution of rechargeability issues caused by active material loss and shape change. Here, a self-assembled Nafion-coated Celgard 3501 (NC-Celgard) separator is shown to enable unprecedented cycle life of a Zn anode in alkaline electrolyte at high depth-of-discharge (DODZn). Using commercially relevant energy-dense electrodes with high areal capacities of 60 mAh cm–2, Zn–Ni cells tested at 20% DODZn cells achieve over 200 cycles while 50% DODZn cells achieve over 100 cycles before failure. The 20% and 50% DOD cells deliver an average of 132 and 180 Wh L–1 per cycle over their lifetime respectively. Rechargeability is attributed to the highly selective diffusion properties of the 300 nm thick negatively charged Nafion coating on the separator which prevents shorting by dendrites and inhibits redistribution of the active material. Crossover experiments show that the NC-Celgard separator is practically impermeable to zincate ([Zn(OH)4]2–), outperforming commercial Celgard, cellophane, Nafion 211 and 212 separators while still allowing hydroxide transport. This work demonstrates the efficacy of selective separators for increasing the cycle life of energy-dense Zn electrodes without adding significant volume or complexity to the system

Concept of Operations for Management by Trajectory

This document describes Management by Trajectory (MBT), a concept for future air traffic management (ATM) in which every flight operates in accordance with a four-dimensional trajectory (4DT) that is negotiated between the airspace user and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to respect the airspace user's goals while complying with National Airspace System (NAS) constraints. In the present-day NAS, the ATM system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the approved flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, once the aircraft starts to move, controllers tactically manage the aircraft to implement traffic management restrictions, separate otherwise conflicting aircraft, and address arising NAS constraints. Tactical controller actions are not directly communicated to the automation systems or other stakeholders. Furthermore, the initial trajectory prediction does not anticipate these disruptions or how they will impact the flight. Consequently, and compounded by gaps in required data and models, trajectory predictions are less accurate than possible, which affects Traffic Flow Management (TFM) performance. A cornerstone of the MBT concept is that all air vehicles have, at all times, an assigned 4DT from their current state to their destination. These assigned trajectories consist of trajectory constraints and descriptions. Pilots and air traffic controllers, with the aid of automation, operate the aircraft to comply with the assigned trajectory, unless first negotiating a revision. Equipped aircraft have substantial responsibility for complying with the assigned trajectory without controller intervention. To maximize the operational flexibility available to the airspace user, the assigned trajectory only imposes trajectory constraints as required to achieve the ATM goals of NAS constraint compliance and aircraft separation. Trajectory descriptions are added to the assigned trajectory to ensure sufficient predictability. To further improve trajectory prediction accuracy, airspace users supplement the assigned trajectory by broadcasting intent information and updating it as necessary. Air vehicle intent is a more detailed description of the airspace user's plan for how the flight will fly the assigned trajectory. Air vehicle intent can change freely, without negotiation, as long as it remains in compliance with the assigned trajectory. Aircraft assigned trajectories, air vehicle intent, and predicted trajectories are shared, creating a common view among stakeholders. A NAS Constraint Service gathers and publishes information about all known NAS constraints, enabling airspace users to be informed participants in trajectory negotiation. Trajectory constraints in the assigned trajectory are mapped to NAS constraints to facilitate identifying which aircraft are affected when NAS constraints change. To support efficient trajectory negotiation, all aircraft provide current information about air vehicle capabilities. Assigned trajectories are constructed to satisfy all known NAS constraints, improving trajectory stability and predictability. Uncertainty and disruptions are handled by modifying the assigned trajectory as far in advance as possible. By proactively negotiating changes to the assigned trajectory, rather than relying on controller-selected tactical actions such as vectors to resolve traffic conflicts or implement miles-in-trail restrictions, MBT keeps aircraft on closed trajectories that are fully known to all stakeholders. Since reactive air traffic control actions cannot be predicted in advance, the downstream trajectory cannot be accurately predicted until they happen. Reliable trajectory predictions allow the system to identify needed modifications to trajectories further in advance, where they can be negotiated and communicated as amendments (i.e., additional or altered trajectory constraints) to the assigned trajectory. Decision Support Tools (DSTs) aid controllers in rapidly defining and communicating closed trajectories to the aircraft and support all stakeholders in trajectory negotiation. Anticipated MBT benefit mechanisms include more accurate trajectory predictions, improved ATM performance and robustness to off-nominal conditions, increased flexibility and operational efficiency, reduced impediments to emerging classes of airspace users accessing NAS resources, reduced environmental impacts, and enhanced safety

Revolution and the end of history: Caryl Churchill's Mad Forest

Caryl Churchill’s Mad Forest, written and performed very soon after the Romanian revolution in 1990 and performed both in London and Bucharest, is a dynamic, inter-cultural play that represents a variety of perspectives on the revolutionary events, as well as oscillating between English and Romanian cultural and language coordinates. It has a peculiar topicality in its detailed and specific usages of different aspects of the revolutionary narrative, its sketches of family life before and after the revolution, and the inclusion of the revolution as reported in quasi-documentary-style testimony. The perspective in this article is one that places the play within a framework that thinks through Mad Forest’s relationship to the triumphant, neoliberalist heralding of “the end of history,” most famously argued by Francis Fukuyama in his 1989 article of that name. This discourse gained further confidence from the collapse of Eastern Europe, a collapse that was viewed by proponents of the end-of-history argument as signalling the permanent disintegration of communism and a victory for capitalism. However, Mad Forest is considered here as a play that reflects multiple perspectives on the revolutionary period and, while declining to provide political solutions as such, simultaneously refuses to accede to the implications of the end-of-history argument